It justifies testing the assumption—not automatically cutting capacity.

Verisk’s April–June 2026 report records approximately 1.24 million US assignments, down 12.21% year over year. Catastrophe assignments represented 43% of the quarter’s volume. These figures come from XactInsights and the XactAnalysis network, not a census of all US property claims. (verisk.com)

Desk interpretation: Test minimum-volume commitments against your own eligible-file forecast. Separate routine and catastrophe demand, and do not infer your carrier’s workload from national network totals.

For procurement, the useful question is: what happens to effective unit cost if fewer files qualify for the contracted service than expected?